(刊載於 hkej.com, 28/04/2015) 在不少人的心目中，按揭成數愈高，對借貸雙方的風險亦愈大，甚至有人認為一旦借款人拖欠供款(行內叫遲會)，銀行便會出現壞賬。其實，由遲會到壞賬，有一個發展次序。有趣的是，要避免按揭組合成為壞賬，重點其實不只在於按揭成數高低，更在於借款人的還款能力。 首先要表明的是，對貸款人來說，任何有抵押貸款都有風險──借款人(債仔)斷供，而抵押品市值又跌至低於未償還貸款餘額時，貸款人便會出現損失。因此，具體而言，「物業成為負資產」及「債仔斷供」兩個情況，便是貸款機構需要處理的風險問題。
(刊載於 hkej.com, 14/04/2015) 市場擔心，銀行按揭收緊，會迫使用家轉向財務機構尋求二按，以解決首期融資問題。當然不排除有此可能，但由債仔角度看，誰會去借利率動輒20厘的按揭產品？ 以往不排除有個別炒家借取二按，購入平價單位作短炒，只要買賣時間短，利率高一點問題不大。不過，在政府推出雙倍印花稅和額外印花稅後，此類操作幾乎絕迹。至於長線投資者又會不會以二按購入單位？或者有可能，但卻不能理順一般物業租金回報率2厘多，高息按揭絕對會蠶食租金，而出現負回報。 那麼主要借高息二按的是什麼人？據我們的觀察，其中一類是「債冚債」的人。當中又可分為兩類：一種是舊債到期，要借新債償還；在此種情況下，新債債息可能高於舊債，最終拖垮借款人財務；第二種是以較低息的新債代替較高息的舊債；利率20厘在按揭貸款算高，卻比信用卡普遍逾30厘的利息低得多。此類操作，計算上借款人的財務情況反而是較前改善。不過，兩種情況都與主導樓市用家關係不大，可說是小眾的非主流貸款。
(刊載於 hkej.com, 07/04/2015) 財務機構提供的按揭會否引發細價樓下跌，而最終引爆吹脹多年的樓市，是市場熱話。筆者從事商業銀行及按證工作多年，對財務作業的丁點認識，希望以貸款人及借款人角度，嘗試分析有關現象及影響。 一般認為，財務機構放債欠缺監管──只要向警方申請放債人牌照，利率不高於法定的60厘息，就可合法放債。而此等機構在一按以外，再向業主提供的按揭，整體按揭比例可能貼近，甚至高於市值十成。一旦樓價回落，物業便成為負資產；只要業主斷供，銀行便會收樓，提供三、四按的財務機構將可能面對全輸的後果。因此，有人認為財務機構為減少此方面風險，一有風吹草動，勢將Call Loan，觸發樓市調整。
(刊載於 hkej.com, 24/03/2015) 在樓市升浪持續十多年的情況下，有沒有樓在社會中漸漸成為一種階級分野。持有物業的話，最少物業會隨時間升值；甚至在地產為主的體制下，一眾小業主似乎也是制度中的既得利益者，甚至是幫凶。但此種流行的觀點值得商榷。 表面看來，即使是只持有一個自住物業的小業主，在樓價上升之際，物業會享受賬面富貴之餘，業主也不必受到租金上升的壓力。不過，小業主成為體制的一部分之時，同樣亦被體制所牽制。 先分享一個故事：港島西某個十多年前落成的大屋苑，提供約2200伙住宅，屋苑有500多個車位，發展商一直持有大部分車位，住戶要泊車，便向車場業主(發展商)租用車位，十多年來相安無事。
(刊載於 hkej.com, 10/03/2015) 金管局收緊按揭指引後第二個周末，一手成交量已見明顯反彈，發展商推盤，仍是維持逐批加價的策略。部分輿論已指加辣無用，但由宏觀層面看，金管局加辣其實是應對更大規模的金融衝擊。 回顧上一次港府及金管局加辣，是2013年2月22日，當日政府推出雙倍印花稅，金管局收緊壓力測試標準。之後當局於2年多的時間內，一直未有再出招。說穿了，政府是在等，等待美國討論多年的利率正常化。一旦美息回歸「正常水平」，港息跟隨上升2、3厘，樓價便可望自行調節。於2013年估計美息2014年上升時，港府自然犯不着再出辣招，以免內外因素交互作用下，樓價出現過大跌幅。
Financial services specialist Leland L Sun, Managing Director and founder of Pan Asian Mortgage, taps into two pillar industries of Hong Kong: financial services and real estate. After moving from California in 1993, he started Pan Asian Mortgage in 2001, while working with Goldman Sachs. The firm’s initial focus was to help clients in negative equity to refinance at a lower rate. From seven employees at start-up, Pan Asian now has more than 40 staff in Hong Kong. As well as a mortgage lender, the firm has become the second-largest mortgage broker in Hong Kong, a division that was set up in 2007. It has a sister company in Chongqing, established in 2007 to provide financial guarantees on SME loans, with nearly 50 staff. His business thrives because there is consistent demand for properties and, with it, a need for mortgage financing in Hong Kong. Much of the demand in recent years has been from the Chinese mainland. Still the greatest demand comes from Hong Kong’s local population, as families move out from public housing and children leave home. “Hong Kong is the best Harvard Business School case study for entrepreneurs,” Mr Sun said. “Even the largest local companies started out as SMEs. “Hong Kong has long been the gateway into China and, in recent years, a gateway from China to the rest of the world. For many reasons, Hong Kong is still a top choice for entrepreneurs and SMEs to set-up their operations, especially if they plan to market into Asia. Leland Sun is chairman of Pan Asian Mortgage
(Published by South China Morning Post, 17 Apr 2013) Last week, I offered three specific suggestions to address the high property prices head-on. As when any new measures are introduced, some stakeholders are bound to be affected. With the Hong Kong economy heavily skewed towards property investment, the suggestion to increase rates would provide a substantial source of recurrent revenue for the government, unlike stamp duty and land sales, which can fluctuate greatly.
(Published by South China Morning Post, 10 Apr 2013) It’s no secret that since late 2009, there have been valiant attempts to moderate the rise in property prices in Hong Kong. In the past three years the government and related agencies have intervened in the property market no fewer than 25 times, introducing additional stamp duties – a Special Stamp Duty and a Buyers’ Stamp Duty – and mandating banks to lower their maximum mortgage advance ratios and run increased interest rate stress-test scenarios. Most recently, it doubled ad valorem stamp duty rates.
(Published by South China Morning Post, 15 Sep 2011) As fears of a market slump loom, companies rush out price lists for new developments Hong Kong developers are accelerating their marketing of four new projects – a total of nearly 2,700 flats, 80 per cent of which are located in Tseung Kwan O – over fears the property market may worsen. Two major developments in Tseung Kwan O, La Splendeur and The Wings, will contribute close to 2,200 flats; the rest are in Happy Valley and Aberdeen.
(刊載於 HKET.COM, 01/09/2010) 你有無看過由政府推出的「你要戒煙，我地一定會撐你」廣告？筆者曾聽過一些煙民投訴：「我是否戒煙、為何要你(政府？)來撐？」細想下來，此類政府 廣告極多，除了「撐你戒煙」、尚有提醒小心過馬路、醉酒駕駛、甚至留意鋁窗維修以及購買旅遊保險等等。在我們這個國際化的城市，官方以及半官方機構都似乎 為市民的福祉時常提出風險管理的忠告。 除了上述有關生活提示以外，這種温馨提示還涉及投資方面如：「結構性產品價格可升可跌，在某些情況下，投資者可能會損失部分或全部投資。」又或者那 羊太的「先求知，再投資」廣告。不過，筆者從來未見過政府會就「買樓風險」有類似的提示。自香港回歸以後，高官如特首、財政司司長有時的確會提醒市民「買 樓要量力而為」，但這種含混的量力而為論，根本沒法說明「怎樣去量 ？」和 「力的標準如何 ？」
